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Risk Insights 3 August 2022
August 3, 2022

Discover insights into current global security risks and political incidents that could impact you and your organization.


AFRICA


DRC—the extreme risk of anti-UN protests


Goma, several days in a row, violent protests have been raging against the UN mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Attacks have been targeting numerous UN compounds across North Kivu since Monday. Dozens of people got killed, including UN personnel, and many more wounded. This area of the country is endowed with minerals but terrorized by armed insurgency groups, such as M23 and ADF rebels, associated with jihadi terrorists. The UN peacekeeping mission, MONUSCO, is set up to deal with the ongoing conflict in this African nation. However, protestors want UN troops to leave the country, blaming them for failing to protect people from growing violence.


Mali—the extreme threat of insurgency


The security situation continues to deteriorate in Mali as armed groups linked to Al Qaeda and Islamic State raid government facilities across the country. In two separate attacks on military compounds in the country's southwest, Islamist combatants have killed almost twenty military personnel and civilians. Also, over two dozen were injured.


Ghana—the risk of a major outbreak


Ghana continues to cope with the highly infectious Marburg virus, trying to stop the infection's spread. Unfortunately, an infected child with this Ebola-like disease has recently died. Although there are only three reported deaths from the virus, it is a developing situation and could lead to a severe outbreak.


Uganda—the risk of floods


Uganda is hit by floods resulting from heavy rains after a lengthy period of drought. Over 20 people got killed. Affected areas are parts of Bugisu, Mbale, and Kapchorwa.


Somalia—the extreme risk of terrorism


Five people got killed in explosions in two Somalia cities. Al Shabaab terrorist group claimed responsibility for blasts in Afgoye and Marka. Somalia has been terrorized by Al Shabaab's ten-year-long anti-government campaign in which frequent armed and bomb attacks against military and civilian targets were conducted. The violence has spilled over into the region, i.e., Ethiopia and Kenya.


Madagascar—the rising threat of banditry violence


More than 30 reported deaths in a raid on civilian homes in Ankazobe district north of the capital Antananarivo. The Dahalo gang is responsible for the attack in which people's homes and residents were burned alive.


Sudan–the military rule in effect


For ten consecutive months, people in Sudan have been protesting against the established military regime followed by the coup d'etat last year. Security forces used tear gas to disperse thousands of protesters. Since the last-year overthrow, the country has been in political turmoil as military leaders don't want to step aside as promised to allow civilians to form a new government.


ASIA


Afghanistan—the risk of reprisal 


Following the killing of Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri by the US, anti-American violence aimed at US facilities, personnel, and citizens is possible. The State Department has announced the Worldwide Caution for US citizens.


China—the risk of conflict


Given the recent development of the situation, there is a potential risk of clashes between China and Taiwan over territory disputes. China has conducted military exercises across the Taiwan Strait and declared that it would take over Taiwan by force if deemed necessary. China has also suspended exports/imports to/from Taiwan. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's recent visit to Taiwan has provoked China and aggravated US-China relations. The crisis could spark new global conflict since Taiwan is backed by the US while Russia supports China.


Myanmar—the unstable political situation


Several people, including foreigners, have got arrested over involvement in recent protests in Yangon. The ruling military regime of Myanmar executed four democracy activists accused of terrorism last week, which sparked demonstrations. The military junta took over the rule after the last-year coup and recently extended the emergency rule for another six months.


EUROPE


Ukraine—the invasion


Amid the ongoing invasion, Russia and Ukraine have reached a deal to 

unblock Ukrainian ports, enabling grain exports. The first ships have already reached Turkey. There is no ceasefire, the number of casualties rises daily, and tensions between Russia and the EU/US are growing.


Kosovo—burning political tensions


The situation in Kosovo has intensified after two border crossings with Serbia were closed. However, both frontier posts were reopened after KFOR, a NATO-led peacekeeping force, supervised the barricade removal. Kosovo remains a disputed territory between Serbia and the Kosovo government, causing sporadic incidents.


THE MIDDLE EAST


Iran—border clashes


Fights between Taliban forces and Iran border police in the Hirmand county have left several casualties and wounded on both sides. Since gaining control in Afghanistan, the Taliban has frequently clashed with neighbors, i.e., Iran and Pakistan security forces.


Iraq—anti-Iran protests


Hundreds of protesters breached the heavily fortified Iraqi Green Zone in Baghdad, where government and foreign diplomatic buildings are located. Demonstrators loyal to the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr stormed the Iraqi parliament on Wednesday to oppose the candidacy of Mohammed al-Sudani for prime minister, supported by Iran-backed parties. The country has plunged into political turmoil due to struggling to form a new government since parliamentary elections in October.


NORTH AMERICA


California, US—the severe threat of wildfires


California continues to battle the largest wildfires this year as the death toll rises to four.


British Columbia, Canada—multiple shootings


The six-hour course of shootings in Langley, BC, has left three people dead, including a suspect, and one woman seriously injured. The attacker's motive remains unknown.


THE CARIBBEAN


Haiti—the high threat of gang violence


The Haiti capital, Port-au-Prince, has been hit by a new wave of gang battles in which rival gangs exchanged fires, causing the closing down of busy areas. In a surge of gang clashes, hundreds have been killed this month.


Cuba—aggravated crisis


Electricity outages are announced in the Cuban capital Havana as the country's economic and energy crisis deepens, adding to the frustration and triggering several smaller protests.


SOUTH AMERICA


Guatemala—the high risk of crime


Guatemalan military exchanged fire with the civilian vehicle that approached the checkpoint near the location of the presidential delegation. President Alejandro Giammattei is unharmed and evacuated timely. The head of state was visiting the area of Huehuetenango and was at a safe distance away from the incident at the time.


OCEANIA


PNG—political upheaval



Papua New Guinea has undergone a new political crisis after the recent general election. Violent unrest has delayed election results and has left dozens killed. Only this year, there have been more than 50 election-related killings. 2017-election has left roughly 200 deaths.


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